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In the latest Electoral Road Show with Chris Steyn, Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman describes how Gayton MacKenzie’s Patriotic Alliance (PA) is continuing to march onwards and upwards “weakening” both the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the African National Congress (ANC) in the Western Cape. In the latest by-election, the PA won 53% of the vote in Malmesbury Wesbank. “This used to be the safest DA municipality in the country. And in 2024, the Patriotic Alliance burst through that wall by winning the seat off the DA.” Sussman also comments on GOOD and Rise Mzansi joining forces behind mayoral hopeful Brett Herron; the ANC’s elevation of Dada Morero to intervention convener for Gauteng’s troubled municipalities; the late President Nelson Mandela’s grandson Mandla eyeing a mayoral chain in the Eastern Cape; and Buffalo City Mayor Princess Faku coming under fire for taking officials on overseas trips to China and Germany while the municipality is struggling financially. “Next week we have two Buffalo City by-elections…It’ll be interesting to see whether this issue, this debacle, hurts the ANC because both of the seats are ANC seats.”
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Edited transcript of the interview
Chris Steyn (00:00.96)
Welcome to another Electoral Road Show. With me Chris Steyn and analyst Supremo Wayne Sussman. Welcome back, Wayne.
Wayne (00:09.931)
Thank you. Great to be speaking to you again, Chris.
Chris Steyn (00:13.664)
Let us go to last night’s results.
Wayne (00:17.921)
We had one by-election yesterday. There were supposed to be two, but the one in KwaZulu-Natal was not proclaimed.
Last night was the final round of Western Cape by-elections for the period after the 2021 local government elections and before the 2026 local government elections, the final by-election in the Western Cape province, indeed a battleground province, a province where the DA did very, very well in 2021 and 2024.
One of the things we’ve been seeing, Chris, is the Patriotic Alliance winning wards off the DA, winning wards off the ANC, and part of this has been generating an incredible turn-out enthusiasm. How is this going to play out in the final round of by-elections?
This by-election was a Patriotic Alliance seat next to Malmesbury in the area of Wesbank or Wesbank in the Swartland area on the West Coast. Now, Swartland was the historic part of the historic blue wall of the DA. This used to be the safest DA municipality in the country. And in 2024, the Patriotic Alliance burst through that wall by winning the seat off the DA.
And this by-election was here because the Patriotic Alliance councillor resigned. It was the PA versus the DA versus the ANC.
And Chris, the PA didn’t just hold the seat, they increased their majority and have further entrenched themselves in the area of Malmesbury, in the area of Swartland, winning over half of the vote, winning 53% of the vote last night, up from 40% of the vote.
The DA did increase slightly from 39% percent to 42% percent, the ANC declining, but this is a very important win for the PA because the by election data shows, and we’ve discussed this week in, week out, across the province, and sadly there’s very little data for the City of Cape Town, but in the rural towns of the Western Cape, the PA march on and march upwards…
Wayne (02:41.64)
…weakening the DA, weakening the ANC.
And a core thing in this by-election was turnout. The turnout in this by-election was 10 percentage points higher than what we saw in the 2024 by-election. The turnout in this by-election was essentially the exact same as what we saw in the national election in 2024.
Gayton Mackenzie and the Patriotic Alliance are enthusing voters; they’re making them excited about the PA and they are turning them out, and this is a significant result in the last round of by elections in the Western Cape, Chris.
Chris Steyn (03:22.062)
Thank you, Wayne. While we are in the Western Cape, GOOD and Rise Mzansi have joined forces behind mayoral hopeful Brett Herron.
Wayne (03:33.729)
Yes, and just to take one step back, one of the early announcements a few months ago was this idea of a new collective called the Unite for Change or UFC, which also stands for Ultimate Fighting Competition, or Combat. But these are lovers, not fighters. And this was Rise Mzansi, Build One South Africa and GOOD. But then Mmusi Maimane and the others didn’t find common ground, and we saw that Unite for Change was not happening.
But then a few weeks later, GOOD and Rise Mzansi agreed to run on a ticket. And the first announcement was the political analyst of the Rivonia Circle Lukhona Mnguni being announced as the Johannesburg mayoral candidate for Rise Mzansi, and GOOD being there to support him and endorse him.
And when one looks across the eight metropolitan areas, the metropolitan area where Rise Mzansi did the best in 2024 was Johannesburg, so Lukhona Mnguni is their candidate.
But in Cape Town, of all the metropolitan areas that was where GOOD did the best, although it was well down on what they did in 2019 in their key municipality.
Patricia De Lille has for a long time been the person most associated, but her number two for many years is Brett Herron, the former member of the Mayoral Committee. He’s part of the provincial legislature, and he’s a former Member of Parliament. He’s the Secretary General of GOOD. So he was announced there, and Lukhona Mnguni and Rise Mzansi were there to support him.
I want to just remind listeners and viewers of one thing. That even though, of course, stronger together is better, this is not really shifting the dial that much because Rise Mzansi, if I remember correctly, they have one seat in the provincial legislature. If you had to add that GOOD’s votes, it wouldn’t have amounted to a second seat. And Rise Mzansi really underperformed in Cape Town, but it’s…
Wayne (05:56.885)
…the media conference, the event, the people generally like parties coming together. It can have a negative.
But I think the supporters of GOOD and Rise Mzansi will say we have a lot in common, we see the world the same way, we see solutions to the city the same way, and Brett Herron will be the mayoral candidate. and now the parties will have to determine the lists.
But this is a shot in the arm for GOOD. Whether they can keep this momentum while competing against the Democratic Alliance, which is the dominant, currently the dominant party in Cape Town, and the rising tide of the Patriotic Alliance, which has also affected GOOD, by the way, remains to be seen.
Even though Brett Herron’s been announced as the mayoral candidate and he’ll be good in the debates, I think the Democratic Alliance and the ANC will be much more concerned about the PA than good with Rise Mzansi in Cape Town.
Chris Steyn (06:57.102)
Over to your part of the world, Wayne, where the African National Congress has elevated Dada Morero to intervention convener for the province’s troubled municipalities.
Wayne (07:13.044)
Yeah, so this is happening at the same time where it was announced that he didn’t make the short list for Johannesburg mayoral candidates. And this was always going to be a core decision for the ANC. Does Dado Morero run for another term?
We know that he lost the regional election battle to Loyiso Masuku,. and she holds the position of deputy mayor. She has tabled the budget recently. So he’s lost that battle.
And I think the ANC are finding a soft landing for him. He’s where people are critical of him as a mayor. He still has a lot of support in Johannesburg and in the province. And I think this is more about keeping the peace and keeping the factions glued together rather than someone who is going to be able to turn around.
Again, I give credit to the ANC for acknowledging there is a crisis in local government in Gauteng. But I think the more significant thing, Chris, is that he didn’t make the short list. Other names in that short list were the Reverend Frank Chikane, there was Jabu Moleketi, the former deputy minister and business person, and Loyiso Masuku. I think these are the three most likely people and this is a significant decision for the ANC, but what we know is it’s definitely not gonna be Dada Morero running for another term.
Chris Steyn (08:45.997)
Over to Eastern Cape Wayne, where the late President Nelson Mandela’s grandson Mandla hopes to become a mayor.
Wayne (08:56.074)
Yeah. Mandla Mandela has of course been a member of Parliament. He’s a traditional leader, but he’s also an activist. He is has announced that he has an interest in being the mayor of the King Sabata Dalindyebo local municipality.
Now, why is this significant? Of all the Eastern Cape has two metropolitan municipalities, Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City, the next with the most residents and people is King Sabata Dalindyebo and this is the Umtata area, the former homeland. And this is a key municipality for the ANC. It’s also been plagued by various troubles and maladministration. And I think it will be a shot in the arm for the ANC to have Mandla Mandela to be their mayoral candidate.
The key is will he remain focused on local issues? The politics of refuse collection, light staying on and potholes is not as interesting as some of the issues which might be discussed on social media or in Parliament. So that remains to be seen. But I think that is, if I have to think of it from the ANC’s perspective, encouraging that he is putting his hand up there.
Chris Steyn (10:19.979)
Meanwhile, another mayor, Buffalo City’s Princess Faku, is under fire for taking officials on overseas trips to China and Germany while the municipality is struggling financially.
Wayne (10:32.902)
Yeah. So we are now in the election period, and politicians should and mayors should always be careful of decisions they make and how the public might react. To take a large junket, a large delegation to on an international trip just before the election, where the municipality’s coffers are under strain, where there’s significant challenges at home.
I think it is not the wisest of political moves. Let me also say that I’m not saying that officials shouldn’t go on overseas trips. It’s important to learn skills, to network, to see what other countries do well, to see what we can do better. But when you take large delegations, I think it leaves a very bad taste in the voters’ mouths.
And this is, by the way, possibly a nice segue because next week we have two Buffalo City by elections, which will be the last by-elections in the Eastern Cape before the local government election, and the last by-election in a metropolitan area before the next local government election. It’ll be interesting to see whether this issue, this debacle, hurts the ANC because both of the seats are ANC seats.
Chris Steyn (11:52.087)
Thank you. That was Wayne Sussman on the Electoral Road Show with me, Chris Steyn. Thank you, Wayne.
Wayne (11:58.817)
Thank you.
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